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This has been a long road, don’t let it end without making your voice heard. Vote now! Text your friends!
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I’ll be working late tonight, we’re holding the paper to get the most results and called races in we can. I’ll be here watching a webcast of results. Google News has a nice widget on the right of their election results.

This will update live with results as they come in:

As we sit about 36 hours away from the polls opening Nov 4, everyone is gearing up their projections, presidential and congressional alike.
Without futher ado: yeroc.org projects the Junior Senator from Illinois Barack Obama to win the 2008 General Election, racking up 353 electoral votes to JM’s 185.
Visually: (thanks to RCP’s “Create Your Own Electoral Map“)

I have the battlegrounds falling this way:
BO: FL, NC, VA, OH, CO, NV
JM: MO, IN, MT

(I never bought PA/IA/NM being battlegrounds. I think GA [sadly], ND, SD fall outside of the battleground penumbra, and to McCain.)

Some of these calls I don’t have the upmost faith in. I only know what everyone else knows. I only read the polls and analysis others can read.

The reasons I have the biggest battlegrounds going to BO are ground game, anti-GOP sentiment, and gambles. Leave it to say ground games break ties. (NC, OH are the states I have in mind. The ground game and street money are what’s going to keep PA safely blue.)

Much will be said about “what happened” in the coming days and weeks so I’ll save some of that analysis for later. I think the GOP is going to have to seriously take an inward look at themselves and who they want to be. They are going to have to redefine themselves to be a national power again.

Briefly about the House and Senate: I haven’t been following the races too closely, but I’ll say +7 Dems in the Senate and.. +25 in the House. I think the GA-Sen will come down to a runoff, and I have no idea what will happen. I’m sure the Obama machine will move in to GA, but I don’t know if they can get the turnout for Jim Martin that Obama got. GA at heart is GOP Red, and that heart is what will show up in a runoff. (i think?)

There’s a one of a kind election recap at http://thisfuckingelection.com I literally laughed out loud at “God Daamn America”. It’s been a long road to Nov 4, and this site is a nice trip down memory lane.

Kanye has some nice election posters up over at his blog. From the “things are fine” ad campaign. Reminiscent of the 5 Friends youtube video set. NAHHTT. Maybe I’m a sucker for famous people not doing things they normally do. (See The Best Commercial Ever [Which as a side note, everyone I've told to watch it thinks it stupid. What the shit.])

A very nice photo roundup of the president that was (unfortunately): George W. Bush in pictures. Makes me think of the Bill Clinton’s “Last Days in Office” Video.

Also, new poll up. Vote! Man I bet you’re sick of people telling you to vote.

The last poll results were as follows:
Question: What’s the biggest issue in this years presidental election?
Economy: 7 Votes
Foreign Policy: 1 Vote
Healthcare: 2 Votes
War in Iraq: 1 Vote
Enviroment: 2 Votes
Energy: 3 Votes
Principles & Values: 1 Vote

The out and out winner was the economy. And even ol’ yeroc.org is a microcosm of the USA. Look at any poll where they ask this question, and I guarantee right now, the economy comes out on top. It also reveals a lot about how the votes for President are being cast. Senator Obama is benefiting greatly from the economy being front and center. If this election had been about Iraq, I guarantee Obama wouldn’t be poised for a landslide. (538.com is at this moment predicting an Obama win 350-189 [270 EV to win])
They’re all worthy things to vote on, but sometimes you have to put something aside for the greater good (your principles and values — maybe like the Rednecks for Obama?)

And that’s it. Happy Halloween, visitor(s).

I read this a couple of days ago, and forgot to post it. via.

What happens if Obama wins VA or FL? McCain has no path to the White House that doesn’t run through BOTH of those states. How does the MSM keep people watching returns, when its over as soon as its started? Or for that matter, why would people vote on the West Coast if they hear Obama’s won before they might have even voted? Obama has no path to the White House that dosen’t run through the nations biggest electoral prize, California (55 EV). (Or OR or WA for that matter. [18 EV]) Do these people still show up to the polls? I’m being a bit of a doomsayer here, but it’s something to keep in mind.

The quandary is highlighted by Virginia, a state that has not voted Democratic for president since 1964 but where Obama is now leading in polls. There is no realistic McCain electoral college strategy that does not depend on winning the Old Dominion.

If it is clear on Nov. 4 that Obama has won in Virginia by the time polls there close at 7 p.m. — it will still be daylight west of the Mississippi (4PM PST) — the obvious conclusion will be that Obama is headed to the White House.

Entire Article: Read more »

Random starting point: Maybe I’ll open a store and call it “Debates, etc.” You could come in and get podiums, microphones, lecterns, moon shaped tables, and in the back all secret like I’d have like wires and earbuds and stuff if you were going to bad at debating, (see Sarah Palin). And maybe a sound proof room where you could debate against other people, or pay like 25 cent a minute to debate against holograms of debaters past.

I’ll admit, I wasn’t transfixed to the TV last night for the debate. As big of a politics buff as I am, I can only watch so much squabbling. Which squabbling = politics a lot so. Anyway. I think JM did a lot better than he scored on all those goofy insta-polls. Even though I guess I prefer insta-polls to pundit or analyst spin. Which there’s still plenty of.

ON TOPIC: I think McCain got his jabs in. Palin totally overhyped him and made it seem like he’d come out and call Obama Osama the entire debate and spit on him and stuff. When Bob Schieffer (who did a fine job) pressed him, he brought up Ayers saying “I don’t care about an old, washed up terrorist. But as Sen. Clinton said in her debates with you we need to know the full extent of that relationship.” Obama calmly replied: “Bill Ayers is a professor of education in Chicago. Forty years ago, when I was 8 years old, he engaged in despicable acts with a radical domestic group. I have roundly condemned those acts. Ten years ago, he served and I served on a board that was funded by one of Ronald Reagan’s former ambassadors and close friends, Mr. Annenberg.” From now on, when the Republicans bring up Ayers, the Democrats are going to point out that one of Reagan’s close friends liked him enough to put him on the board of one of his foundations.

The biggest zinger of the night went to McCain though, saying “Senator Obama. I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago.” But Obama parried this by saying: “on the core economic issues that matter to the American people–on tax policy, on energy policy, and spending priorities–you have been a vigorous supporter of President Bush.”

But any substance McCain may have possibly won or tied on, he lost on body language and looking presidential. He was pissy, tense, sarastic, and smirky. Obama, the law professor, was cool and collected.

I’ll close with this from electoral-vote.com (because it’s better than I could do):

In short, in the World Series of Debate, the Democrats won 4-0. There will be no game 5. Obama was already ahead when he started and he increased his lead in every area that matters to the voters. Many observers have said all along this is Obama’s race to win or lose and there is nothing John McCain can do about it. The voters are sick and tired of George Bush and his enablers and angry about the direction the country is going. They desperately want change. The only issue is whether Obama is up to the job. The Republicans have thrown everything including the kitchen sink at him, but he has come off as cool (in at least two ways), knowledgeable, and completely unflappable. There will be more complete polls in the next few days, but Obama probably closed the deal last night.

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And now to the etc: I’m picking up some freelance design work now so updates will probably be scant in the foreseeable future. These projects will probably encompass a lot of my free time. If anyone is interested in writing “interest” pieces, or anything, let me know and we’ll talk. That’d be super.

I’ll probably still cover big election stuff, since its less than 3 weeks to the election. That will probably be the main topic here until then. And probably everywhere, honestly. This is a milestone election, and everyone wants their say.

Here are the latest electoral projections from independent, small media electoral forecasting websites:

Election Projection: Obama 364-174
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174, 15 tied
Fivethirtyeight: Obama 347.6-190.4 McCain
Pollster.com: Obama 320, McCain 158, Toss-up 60
Real Clear Politics: Obama 277, McCain 158, Toss-up 103

There are many more, but I’ll stop there. The key point is that all small media election projection websites, including the Republican Election Projection and Real Clear Politics, have Obama over 270 electoral votes. This is because polls now objectively show that Obama is well over 270 electoral votes. However, none of the big, and so-called liberal, media websites show Obama over 270 right now. Every single one is even more favorable to McCain than Real Clear Politics:

MSNBC: Obama 264-174 McCain
CNN: Obama 264-174 McCain
New York Times: Obama 260–200 McCain

None of these websites can admit what is patently obvious to even Republican poll watchers right now: Obama is over 270 outside the margin of error. The inability of these big media sites to simply admit reality–reality that is evident in their own reporting about McCain playing from well behind right now–is pathetic.

Maybe they are afraid of being accused of pro-Obama bias (probably). Maybe they are just biased toward McCain (possibly). Maybe they just suck at electoral forecasting (definitely). Maybe they are invested in a close campaign (absolutely). Whatever it is, you would be well served to never, ever listen to big media for election forecasts and horserace information. They just don’t have it. The inability of these big media sites to simply admit reality–reality that is evident in their own reporting about McCain playing from well behind right now–is pathetic.

This has always peeved me. All big networks and newspapers spin the race to close, when Obama is really blowing Mac out the water. They are simply invested in a close campaign. They’re protecting their ratings for their results programming on Nov. 4. There’s money in covering a close race. A one sided affair means less money. People won’t watch if they think the race is a foregone conclusion.

copypasta via OpenLeft

From NYT:

During the Presidential campaign, much has been made of Barack Obama’s slender physique, with some commentators going so far as to argue that he is too thin for most Americans to relate to him. Does candidate height and weight play a role in electoral success? With Mr. Obama and John McCain set to square off in the second of three presidential debates tomorrow, it seemed worth taking a look through recent history.

(Click for full size chart!)

If the candidates were trains..